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If you’re a Social Security beneficiary, you may see a boost in your checks starting in 2026.
While the official Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) won’t be released until Oct. 10, the increase for next year is estimated at 2.2 percent, according to The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan senior citizens group that accurately predicted the 2.5 percent COLA for 2025. That number is based on data from the Department of Labor’s Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).
A 2.2 percent increase would raise the average Social Security payment for retired workers from $1,980.86 (as of February 2025) to $2,024.44 in 2026, an increase of $43.58. Social Security COLAs take effect in January.
Social Security benefits: How much could they increase in 2026?
Here’s how a Social Security COLA breaks down for different recipients.
Predicted COLA increases for 2026
| Beneficiary type | Average 2025 check (as of February) | Average estimated monthly increase in 2026 | Average estimated 2026 check amounts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retiree | $1,980.86 | $43.58 | $2,024.44 |
| Retired couple, both receiving benefits | $3,961.72 | $87.16 | $4,048.88 |
| Worker with disability | $1,580.76 | $34.78 | $1,615.54 |
| Widow(er) | $1,837.16 | $40.42 | $1,877.58 |
| Children of deceased workers | $1,136.27 | $25.00 | $1,161.27 |
Next year’s estimated COLA is expected to be close to the 2.5 percent seen this year and roughly in line with the average COLA of about 2.6 percent over the past 20 years, according to the Senior Citizens League.
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How Social Security COLA is calculated
The Social Security Administration calculates the new COLA by measuring the increase in the CPI-W for the third quarter of this year with the third quarter of last year. Monthly reports on the Consumer Price Index help organizations like the Senior Citizens League predict the COLA ahead of time.
Social Security payments are a lifeline for millions of Americans, with an estimated 73.2 million people receiving some form of Social Security benefits in February 2025.
While COLA estimates give you a good idea of what to expect next year, it doesn’t paint the full picture. The standard Medicare Part B premium — which most beneficiaries have deducted directly from their benefit payments — could go up next year, too.
— Bankrate’s Johna Strickland contributed to an update of this article.
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